Wake Up The Sleeping Giant: Black Voter Disengagement Threatens Our Democracy And Our Rights

In a democracy that prides itself on fairness and representation, an alarming trend is emerging that threatens to undermine these very principles. Recent studies and the 2021 Census reveal that Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic (BAME) communities are significantly underrepresented at the polls. This issue extends beyond mere statistics—it’s a wake-up call for the entire nation.

The Data Speaks: BAME Communities Falling Behind

The 2019 General Election saw a UK-wide turnout of 67.3%, a decrease from 68.8% in 2017. While regions like Scotland (68.1%), South West England (72.0%), and South East England (70.2%) showed higher engagement, Northern Ireland lagged with a turnout of 61.8%. East Dunbartonshire had the highest constituency turnout at 80.3%, whereas Kingston upon Hull East and Blackpool South had some of the lowest voter turnouts.

Age and Turnout

Higher turnout is evident in constituencies with older populations. In 2019, older age groups (65+) had a turnout of 74%, compared to a mere 47% among younger voters aged 18-24. Black and Asian communities have a much younger demographic profile, which means they are outnumbered in voting terms by elderly white people. We need to understand that all parties consider pensioners as sacrosanct due to their routinely high voter registration and turnout rates. In a democratic political economy, numbers count. We need to increase our registration and voter turnout rates to ensure parity in politics. It’s that simple.

The Underrepresentation of BAME MPs

Current BAME Representation

As of recent data, there are 65 BAME MPs in the UK Parliament. Given that around 18.3% of the UK population identifies as BAME, proportional representation would require approximately 119 BAME MPs out of the 650 seats in the new Parliament.

Progress and Projections

In the 2019 election, 65 BAME MPs were elected, an increase from 49 in 2017. 

To achieve proportional representation, an additional 54 BAME MPs are needed. 

Projected Growth of BAME Communities

Based on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) projections, the BAME population in the UK has been growing steadily, increasing from around 13% in 2011 to approximately 18.3% in 2021. Assuming a similar growth rate, the BAME population could be around 21.0% by 2028, 23.6% by 2033, and 26.3% by 2038. This growth will increase the number of BAME MPs needed for proportional representation: 137 MPs by 2028, 153 MPs by 2033, and 171 MPs by 2038. 

Despite the steady increase in BAME MPs, achieving proportional representation will become more challenging as the BAME population grows. 

If the current rate of increase (on average say 16 MPs per election cycle) continues, it would take approximately three to four election cycles, or around 15 to 20 years, to achieve proportional representation in Parliament—sometime in 2044. 

By then, we would need a total of 171 MPs to represent the growth in our communities. The truth is we simply can’t wait that long.

‍Barriers to Voting: More Than Just Apathy

The latest data paints a troubling picture of political engagement and representation among BAME communities in the UK. Despite significant efforts, these communities remain underrepresented and disengaged. This issue isn't just a statistical anomaly; it's a profound challenge to our democratic values.

Representation Plays a Big Factor

This election is set to see more BAME candidates standing for election than at any other time in British political history. A total of 96 new candidates are standing this year, the highest ever number.

Disheartening Data: Political Parties, Representation, and Turnout

A YouGov survey in 2022 sampled 1,001 BAME adults in Britain, revealing stark perceptions about political representation:

• 59% of respondents believe MPs are not representative of the wider population.
• 64% think Conservative MPs lack representation.
• 50% feel Liberal Democrat MPs are not representative.
• Labour fares better but still has 39% believing their MPs aren't representative, with only 46% seeing them as representative.

The Importance of Diversity

BAME respondents highlighted the significance of diversity in Parliament:

• 37% believe gender balance is crucial when selecting parliamentary candidates.
• 40% believe ethnic diversity is essential.

While there's a general sense that representation has improved, the progress is sluggish:

• 34% believe ethnic minority representation among MPs has improved.
• 32% see an improvement in the Conservative Party.
• 26% acknowledge better representation in the Labour Party.

Engagement Levels: A Crisis of Trust

The YouGov survey also highlighted alarming levels of disengagement:

• 45% of BAME respondents feel engaged in politics.
• 48% do not, citing distrust in politicians and a lack of relatability.

This distrust is mirrored in their future political aspirations:

• 28% desire a high level of involvement in politics.
• 44% have a low desired level of involvement.

Barriers to Voting: Why Aren’t BAME Communities Voting?

The barriers are manifold:

• Systemic and Institutionalised Racism: The large-scale and yet unacknowledged systemic racism that affects party politics is a huge turnoff for many BAME voters.
• Alienation and Disenfranchisement: Many BAME individuals feel disconnected from the political system, believing their votes do not matter.
• Lack of Awareness: Limited knowledge about the importance of voting and the registration process.
• Socioeconomic Factors: Lower income, education, and employment rates contribute to voter apathy.
• Systemic Issues: Complicated registration forms, language barriers, and lack of translated materials discourage participation.

A Call to Action: Wake Up, Britain!

Addressing these issues isn't just about increasing numbers at the polls. It's about ensuring that every community feels represented and valued in our democracy. Operation Black Vote (OBV) calls on all citizens, policymakers, and community leaders to rise to the challenge. Your vote matters—let's make it count.

Join us as we host a series of national hustings in four major cities across the UK.

Event Details: With live links 

• Nottingham: 24th June 2024, The Pilgrim Centre
• Manchester: 25th June 2024, Venue TBC
• Birmingham: 26th June 2024, The Legacy Centre of Excellence
• London: 28th/29th June 2024, Venue TBC

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OBV Black Voter Trends and Significant Data

General Trends in Turnout

• UK General Election Turnout (2019): 67.3%, a decrease from 68.8% in 2017.
• Regional Turnout:some text
  • Highest: Scotland (68.1%), South West England (72.0%), South East England (70.2%).
  • Lowest: Northern Ireland (61.8%).
• Highest Constituency Turnout: East Dunbartonshire (80.3%).
• Lowest Constituency Turnout: Kingston upon Hull East (Labour hold) and Blackpool South (Conservative gain from Labour).

Age and Turnout

• Higher turnout in constituencies with older populations.
• Older age groups (65+) have a higher turnout (74%) compared to younger age groups (18-24) at 47% (2019).

Representation of BAME MPs

Current BAME Representation

• As of recent data, there are 65 BAME MPs in the UK Parliament.
• Census Data and Proportional Representationsome text
  • According to the 2021 Census, around 18.3% of the UK population identifies as BAME.
  • The UK Parliament has 650 seats.
  • Proportional representation of BAME in Parliament: 650×0.183=119 MPs.

Progress and Projection

• There were 65 BAME MPs elected in 2019.
• At the current rate of progress, it would take approximately three to four election cycles, or around 15 to 20 years, to achieve proportional representation of BAME MPs in the UK Parliament. By 2044, that number would be a total of 137 MPs.

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• Sources:

• YouGov Survey (2022)
• 2021 Census Data
• Electoral Commission Reports
• British Election Study Team, 2018
• Ipsos MORI Polling Research, 2019
• British Futures 2024

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